Analysis | The best picks to win this year’s Preakness Stakes

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The Preakness Stakes field received a jolt Wednesday with the news that Muth, the Bob Baffert-trained horse who was the morning line favorite after winning this year’s Arkansas Derby, was scratched from the race due to a fever.

That leaves Mystik Dan, who won this year’s Kentucky Derby in thrilling fashion, as the morning-line favorite for the race. But there are reasons to be cautious about his chances to win at Pimlico Race Course. He got a perfect trip in his run for the roses, saving enough ground to hold off Sierra Leone and Japanese import Forever Young in a photo finish, and he is unlikely to be as fortunate in the second leg of the Triple Crown. Plus, he earned a very low final Brisnet speed figure in his latest victory (97) compared to the average figure earned in these Grade I events (103). In fact, his only final speed figure in the triple digits was earned over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park.

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