It’s playoff time! My favorite time of year is when we get to transition from the weird handicapping angles of motivation, players sitting, and playoff scenarios that impact Week 18 and move into the straightforward matchup-based handicapping of the playoffs. I have been breaking down the matchups since late last week in anticipation and will record my plays here and in Discord as I see bets I like. For access, join up, and be sure to use promo code SharpClarke to save 10% off a 4for4 Betting Subscription!
NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Tracker
NYG @ MIN Under 48.5 Points (-110) (DraftKings, 1.11.23)
The last time these two teams played, just three weeks ago, the line was 48. Even that number got steamed up by a release. The game was slow and low-scoring, sitting at 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter. But a late flurry of points (aided in part by short fields and urgency) led to a 27-24 finish and a win for over bettors. This was a fluky over, and yet the line has crept up half a point for the rematch. In the interim, the Vikings also lost a starting tackle and the Giants‘ defense has been playing better football, led by a surging Kayvon Thibodeaux. This should not be at 48.5 based on the efficiency of these two average offenses, and the Giants‘ likely reliance on the ground game.
Risk: 1.1% on DraftKings to win 1%.
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