NBA betting: Four picks for Monday

Date:

There are eight games on the schedule for Monday, with six pitting teams with above .500 records against teams with below. This leads to several large spreads, including at least one situation in which I advocate giving the points.

The matchup between two over .500 teams is an interesting one as well, particularly for player props. More on this and the other angles that caught my eye below.


Dre’s favorite bets for Monday night

Denver Nuggets -8.5 over Detroit Pistons.

Both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back after getting blown out on Sunday. But the Nuggets’ 12-point loss to the Cavaliers was an outlier, since Nikola Jokic battling foul trouble for most of the game. The Pistons’ 29-point loss to the Raptors is closer to business as usual. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA and an average scoring margin of -6.6 PPG, while the Nuggets are still a half-game from the best record in the Western Conference with a scoring margin of +5.6. Look for Jokic and the Nuggets to have a big bounce-back game on Monday night with a convincing win over the Pistons.

De’Aaron Fox over 35.5 total points + assists.

Fox has he has averaged 34.2 PPG and 6.2 APG over his past six games, going over 35.5 points and assists in four of the six games. The Kings are on the second half of a back-to-back, and Fox had 30 points and seven assists in 31 minutes Sunday. Sacramento faces a New Orleans Pelicans team that is also on the second half of a back-to-back and ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in points (20th) and assists (T17th) allowed to opposing point guards.

Miami Heat -1.5 over Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls beat the Heat by six points on Saturday, halting the Heat’s seven-game win streak and ending Chicago’s three-game losing streak. However, the Heat led by 21 points and were seemingly in control before the Bulls pulled off the comeback. Both teams’ performances leading into that game would suggest the Heat should be favored in Monday night’s matchup. Look for the Heat to bounce back and get a solid revenge win at United Center.

Julius Randle over 20.5 points.

Randle has picked up his game in a major way after a relatively slow start to the season (13.7 PPG through his six games). He has averaged 24.3 PPG over the past two weeks with no performance under 21 points in his past seven games. Randle averaged 44.0 PPG in two games against the Timberwolves last season, and Minnesota ranks in the middle-of-the-pack (15th) in points allowed to opposing power forwards.


Tonight’s Lines and BPI Predictions

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics, Odds by ESPN BET


Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets
7 p.m. Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC


Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 11-2 (6-5-2)
Hornets: 3-9 (5-7-0)

Line: Celtics (-8.5) Total: 232.5
Money Line: Celtics (-375), Hornets (+305)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 8.5, straight up 77.6%, 231.7 total points.

Injury Report:
Celtics: None reported
Hornets: Cody Martin, (OUT – Knee); Frank Ntilikina, (OUT – Lower Leg); James Bouknight, (OUT – Knee); Nick Richards, (OUT – Concussion); Terry Rozier, (OUT – Groin)


Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit


Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 9-4 (5-8-0)
Pistons: 2-12 (6-8-0)

Line: Nuggets (-9.5) Total: 224.5
Money Line: Nuggets (-400), Pistons (+320)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 5.3, straight up 68.6%, 229.0 total points.

Injury Report:
Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT – Knee); Jamal Murray, (OUT – Hamstring)
Pistons: Isaiah Livers, (GTD – Ankle); Jalen Duren, (GTD – Ankle); Joe Harris, (GTD – Shoulder); Killian Hayes, (GTD – Shoulder); Monte Morris, (GTD – Quadriceps); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Calf)


Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.


Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 9-4 (4-9-0)
Wizards: 2-10 (5-7-0)

Line: Bucks (-9.5) Total: 245.5
Money Line: Bucks (-425), Wizards (+340)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 6.7, straight up 71.8%, 241.6 total points.

Injury Report:
Bucks: Jae Crowder, (OUT – Groin); Chris Livingston, (OUT – Ankle); MarJon Beauchamp, (OUT – Ankle)
Wizards: Johnny Davis, (GTD – Elbow); Delon Wright, (OUT – Knee)


Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago


Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 8-5 (5-8-0)
Bulls: 5-9 (5-8-1)

Line: Heat (-1.5) Total: 208.5
Money Line: Heat (-120), Bulls (+100)
BPI Projection: Heat by 1, straight up 53.6%, 218.3 total points.

Injury Report:
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT – Ankle); R.J. Hampton, (OUT – Knee)
Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT – Knee); Alex Caruso, (GTD – Toe); Dalen Terry, (GTD – Kneecap)


New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis


Records (Against the Spread)
Knicks: 8-5 (9-3-1)
Timberwolves: 9-3 (6-4-2)

Line: Timberwolves (-3.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Knicks (+125), Timberwolves (-145)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 2.1, straight up 57.5%, 225.0 total points.

Injury Report:
Knicks: Evan Fournier, (GTD – Ankle); Quentin Grimes, (GTD – Wrist)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT – Achilles); Jordan McLaughlin, (OUT – Knee)


Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. Smoothie King Center, New Orleans


Records (Against the Spread)
Kings: 8-4 (8-4-0)
Pelicans: 6-7 (7-5-1)

Line: Kings (-1.5) Total: 238.5
Money Line: Kings (-115), Pelicans (-105)
BPI Projection: Pelicans by 2.5, straight up 58.8%, 234.9 total points.

Injury Report:
Kings: Kevin Huerter, (GTD – Finger); Trey Lyles, (GTD – Calf); Alex Len, (OUT – Ankle)
Pelicans: Jose Alvarado, (GTD – Ankle); CJ McCollum, (OUT – Chest); Trey Murphy III, (OUT – Knee); Larry Nance Jr., (OUT – Ribs)


LA Clippers at San Antonio Spurs
8 p.m. Frost Bank Center, San Antonio


Records (Against the Spread)
Clippers: 4-7 (4-7-0)
Spurs: 3-10 (3-9-1)

Line: Clippers (-8.5) Total: 230.5
Money Line: Clippers (-360), Spurs (+290)
BPI Projection: Clippers by 8.9, straight up 78.3%, 234.6 total points.

Injury Report:
Clippers: Mason Plumlee, (OUT – Knee); Brandon Boston Jr., (OUT – Quadriceps)
Spurs: Devin Vassell, (GTD – Groin)


Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. Chase Center, San Francisco


Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 6-5 (7-3-1)
Warriors: 6-8 (5-8-1)

Line: Warriors (-6.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Rockets (+225), Warriors (-275)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 8, straight up 76.0%, 229.7 total points.

Injury Report:
Rockets: Amen Thompson, (GTD – Ankle); Victor Oladipo, (GTD – Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT – Leg)
Warriors: Gary Payton II, (OUT – Foot); Draymond Green, (OUT – Suspension)

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