VSiN Analytics NBA Betting Trends Report – February 11

Date:

The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on Sunday, February 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in a NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.

System Matches (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wager. When 65% or more of the HANDLE was on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.

System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority HANDLE of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at BET VOLUME:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the “super” majority benchmark for HANDLE success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing NUMBER of BETS. When 69% or more of the NUMBER of BETS was on a side of an ATS wager (HOME or ROAD), this “super” majority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.

System Matches (FADE): BOSTON

This last system involves totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority NUMBER of BETS groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).

System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in SAC-OKC

Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+DaysRest are 170-114 SU & 167-109 ATS (60.5%) versus teams playing on OneDayRest over the L3 seasons.

2/11: MIAMI vs. Boston

System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+6 vs BOS)

* Home teams playing on 3+DaysRest are 53-26 SU & 51-26-2 ATS (66.2%) hosting road teams on OneDayRest over the L2 seasons.

2/11: MIAMI vs. Boston

System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+6 vs BOS)

* OVER the total was 99-63 (61.1%) over the L2 seasons when one team was on OneDayRest and the opponent was playing on 3+DaysRest.

2/11: OVER the total in MIAMI-BOSTON

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226)

* OVER the total was 48-31 (60.8%) over the L2 seasons when the home team was on 3+DaysRest and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.

2/11: OVER the total in MIAMI-BOSTON

System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 226)

The following are some of the top team specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC SCHEDULING SITUATION TRENDS TODAY

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details 5 different betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NO QUALIFYING TEAM STRENGTH SYSTEMS TODAY

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L4+ seasons unless noted.

Extreme Scoring Systems

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for

2) Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 179-111 SU but 127-159-4 ATS (44.4%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 24-32 ATS.

System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (+3 at OKC)

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble

3) NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 125-76 SU but 86-111-4 ATS (43.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. Included among this is a 73-98 ATS mark when not playing the next day.

System Match: FADE OKLAHOMA CITY (-3 vs SAC)

Unusual shooting performance systems

12) NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 201-220 SU & 188-230-3 ATS (45%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.

System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (+3 at OKC)

Unusual defensive performances

17) Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebound well when favored the next time out, going 131-49 SU & 100-78-2 ATS (56.2%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.

System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-6 at MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details 9 different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: MIAMI +6 (+1.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -6 (+0.5), 2. OKLAHOMA CITY -3 (+0.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: SAC-OKC OVER 240 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: BOS-MIA UNDER 226 (-1.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: MIAMI +6 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: SAC-OKC OVER 240 (+0.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: BOS-MIA UNDER 226 (-0.2)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

Sunday, February 11, 2024

(567) BOSTON at (568) MIAMI

* BOSTON is on 8-4 ATS run at Miami

System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(569) SACRAMENTO at (570) OKLAHOMA CITY

* SACRAMENTO is 7-0-1 ATS in L8 vs. Oklahoma City

System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS

Share post:

Popular

More like this
Related

Get 30/1 on one or more goals to be scored in the EFL Cup final

Two heavyweights go head to head in the EFL...

Claim £30 in free bets for Arsenal vs Newcastle

Arsenal face Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium on...

Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Spurs vs Lakers: Target LeBron James’ shooting from deep

The Los Angeles Lakers welcome in the San Antonio...